Whether we are relief or development actors, operators, donors, people affected by crises or taxpayers, we are all concerned by the challenges brought by climate change and new developments in international politics, the increasing number of serious and protracted crises, and the fact that development gains are increasingly threatened by the general turbulence of the planet. In a world where the future is uncertain, and potentially dangerous, the new challenge facing us is how to manage “grey rhinos” (predictable risks) and “black swans” (unpredictable risks).